Submarine cables: global intelligence vulnerability.
"How to protect submarine cables against possible attacks?" It is a complex problem with countless uncontrollable variables. An excellent contribution would be a Wargame that verifies vulnerabilities and risks, reduces surprises, and indicates possible approaches to the problem.
GEOPOLITICS
"T&P Análises" seeks to bring current and essential issues to discussion, such as communications via submarine cables. In addition to its proven relevance, this topic is of great complexity, mainly due to the variables involved and the number of actors involved. This characteristic can justify using the Wargames methodology to analyze the topic, seek insights, collaborate to improve policies and strategies and contribute to everyone involved's decision-making process. The following considerations illustrate the theme:
Submarine cables are currently fundamental for communications around the world. They quickly and reliably connect people, companies from various segments, and governments in all their spheres of power. They are responsible for over 90% of all internet traffic and are essential for the financial system, research, meetings, etc.
Recently, four submarine cables were damaged in the Red Sea, impacting around 25% of communications, notably internet traffic between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, forcing the companies responsible for the cables to reroute this traffic. It is worth mentioning that this occurred in a scenario of high instability due to attacks by the Houthis against maritime traffic in the region, as well as after threats made by that group regarding possible attacks on submarine cables that pass close to Yemen. This situation makes repair services for damaged cables difficult.
Additionally, this has provoked a war of narratives between Israel and Yemen, in which the Israelis cast suspicion on the Houthis, and the latter vehemently denies the accusations, blaming the US and the UK. The fact once again brought to the fore the debate and reflection on the importance and vulnerability of submarine cables and the possible impacts of damage to these means of communication on the international scene.
According to the Brazilian government's definition, "critical infrastructures are facilities, services, goods, and systems whose interruption or destruction causes a serious social, environmental, economic, political, or international impact on the security of the state and society" (source: https:/ /www.gov.br/gsi/pt-br/assuntos/seguranca-de-infraestruturas-criticas).
Therefore, we can consider submarine cables as critical infrastructure, and consequently, because they are strategic, they must receive increasing attention from States, including Brazil. Our country has, according to information from the Brazilian Navy, four main connection points for submarine cables, which must be considered as Brazilian critical infrastructure and therefore deserve strategic attention from the state, as they can be the target of attacks, sabotage, or espionage: "In Brazil, there are four main connection points, the most important being Fortaleza (CE), which is considered by the international community as a large intercontinental hub, functioning as a connecting pole between various telecommunications systems via submarine cables. The other three relevant centers are located in Santos (SP), Salvador (BA), and Rio de Janeiro (RJ)." (source: Brazilian Navy, dated February 15, 2022, available at https://www.marinha.mil.br/noticias/importancia-dos-cabos-submarinos-no-brasil)